I've been interested in geopolitical analysis ever since I picked up a copy of George Friedman's book The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century back in 2008. I read this book cover-to-cover in almost a day the first time I gave it a read, it was that interesting. I found the arguments in this book so compelling that I remembered them 14 years later when Russia invaded Ukraine. Friedman included an entire chapter on his predictions regarding what Russia would feel compelled to do in the first decades of the 21st century. This included an assertion that Russia would attempt to retake the land / territories that were lost when the Soviet Union dissolved. A year ago I wrote a blog entry regarding this.
Fast forward to February 2023 and I came across a former Stratfor analyst, vice president, and colleague of George Friedman: Peter Zeihan. Zeihan first caught my attention with his YouTube videos on the Russia / Ukraine war. I found his analysis of the conflict and its potential implications on the future of the global geopolitical and trading order to be both insightful and stripped of pretence. I found this to be a refreshing break from the overly dramatized, "human interest" coverage that is preferred by media outlets such as the major TV networks / news networks and larger newspapers. Zeihan's focus is on geopolitical, economic, and demographic analysis and he sticks to this, leaving the more sensational aspects of events in the world to others.
I found one of Zeihan's videos on "de-globalization" to be one of the most interesting and compelling ones that he has put out. An absolutely fascinating take on the current state of globalization / supply chains / geopolitical power and where this may be leading the world. Many of Zeihan's points (not surprisingly) echo what Friedman wrote in The Next 100 Years but with an updated perspective circa 2022/23. Here is this video - I believe that it is well worth a watch and well worth some contemplation on where the world may be headed.
Based on my own experience, I don't think that most people are paying attention to these trends, with the possible exception of some well-placed elites in think tanks, governmental foreign affairs departments, and the risk management functions of some large, global corporations. It is a shame that the popular media is not covering the trends that Zeihan is pointing out through his geopolitical analysis. I fear that most of us in North America have become far too used to and complacent about a world that has been shaped over the last 30 years by globalization. If Zeihan is correct and this order is quickly coming to an end due to both geopolitical and demographic factors, our societies, governments, and businesses need to start preparing for this eventuality now.
I don't think that this is the case though. I work in risk management for a major corporation and these trends (though somewhat obvious on their surface via the news) are not being looked at or considered at any level of detail. Indeed, the research sources that I commonly use (including reports from the big Canadian banks and the Conference Board of Canada) only hint at some of the trends that Zeihan is highlighting. I find this absolutely perplexing yet, sadly, not all that surprising. Human beings do tend to suffer from a peculiar myopia regarding current events - especially when they have been conditioned over a period of decades to accept the world as it has been. This is a set of blind spots that academics and authors such as Daniel Khaneman, Amos Tversky, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb have documented in detail.
Whether or not Zeihan is correct in his prognostications, I don't know. I'm just enough of a skeptic to not take anything at face value, no matter how compelling and reasonable the arguments being put forth by a particular commentator. In Zeihan's case though, given his background with Stratfor and his years as a geopolitical analyst, I am willing to currently give him the benefit of the doubt. Time will tell whether or not his predictions come true.
For now, I leave you with a series of videos Zeihan has posted on demographics and the impact these trends may have on the geopolitical world order and trade. Whether you agree with Ziehan or are potentially even offended by some of the points that he makes in this video series, you must admit that he does provide some extremely compelling food for thought - for every business, government, and citizen.
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