Geography and Psychology of the War in Ukraine

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, I have been seeking more historical context around what the roots of this conflict are. There is a book called "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century" by George Friedman that I consulted last week. This provided a written account of the geopolitical realities of Eastern Europe and how this impacts the Russian leadership's view of the world and its neighbours. This was a helpful analysis but it is thirteen years old.

Thankfully, CNN finally provided a recent geographical and psychological explanation of the roots of this conflict and why Russia has invaded Ukraine. This is more complicated than a simple story line of Putin being insane. Even if there was another leader in Russia, the way the leadership there views its vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe would likely result in the same situation as the world finds itself in today.

Please do not think that I am in any way excusing Russia's aggression in Ukraine or the risk that this presents to the world of a much larger conflict. I do think that it is important though to understand what the root causes of this aggression are. This understanding is important to dealing with this problem over the long run.

It is also important to understand how the West has been naive and full of wishful thinking when dealing with Russia over the past two decades. CNN provides examples of this in terms of U.S. policies from President's Clinton through to Obama and the debacle of Trump. Watch some of the statements made by U.S. leaders regarding Putin. Should it be any surprise that the world finds itself where we are today? Hopefully this is a galvanizing moment that is waking up Western countries from their complacency.

Gary Kasparov outlines in the following interview with The Bulwark more details regarding this and how Germany and its government over the past twenty years willing made Germany dependent on Russian natural gas. Not a great position to be in geopolitically. Clearly foolish in hindsight.

Here's to hoping that this war does not spread into anything wider. The last thing that we need right now is a third world war. I'm not sure how hopeful I am presently that this will not be the case.